Riga FC arrive at this second leg with a one-goal cushion from Skopje, having won the first meeting 3-2. Their last five matches have produced 4 wins and 21 goals combined, with 4 of those games going over 2.5. Vardar need to score to stay alive, which opens the game up from the first whistle.
The numbers point in one direction. Riga have conceded in all 5 of their last outings and scored in 4. Vardar have scored in 4 of their last 5 and conceded in 4. Neither side has shown any appetite for clean sheets in this tie. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.55-1.57, which sits comfortably above the implied probability given how both attacks have functioned.
The verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 (bet365). Riga will not park the bus with a one-goal lead against a side that must attack, and Vardar have enough quality to force at least one. The tie context almost guarantees an open game.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 22.07.26 | UEFA Conference League | 2–3 | O2.5 |
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