Rennes arrive in round 4 with three Ligue 1 wins from their last two competitive outings and a defence that has not kept a single clean sheet in five matches. Marseille come in on the back of two straight league defeats but still carry firepower, scoring in 4 of their last 5 games. Both sides are hurting at the back and the atmosphere should be electric.
The model puts BTTS probability at 81%. Rennes have seen BTTS land in all 5 of their last 5 matches. The h2h confirms the pattern: 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads ended with both teams on the scoresheet, and over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 5. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.55-1.57, BTTS YES at 1.45-1.50.
BTTS YES at 1.50 is the call. The data is unusually aligned: zero clean sheets for Rennes, a leaky Marseille rearguard, and a model probability of 81%. Kondogbia and Nnadi are absent for the visitors, adding defensive fragility.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.05.26 | Ligue 1 | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.02.26 | Coupe de France | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 15.08.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 17.05.25 | Ligue 1 | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 11.01.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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