RB Leipzig arrive here on mixed form, three defeats in five, yet their home record carries a brutal edge: a 6-0 and a 5-0 in their last two at Red Bull Arena tell you the firepower is very much intact. PSV travel with three wins from five and have scored in every game across that stretch, but six of those goals came against Eredivisie opposition, and they carry six absentees into a hostile European environment.
Leipzig have scored 13 goals in five outings and hit over 2.5 in four of them. PSV have conceded in four of their last five. Both squads are injury-hit, but Leipzig's walking wounded are arguably less disruptive to the starting shape. The DNB price at 1.38-1.40 offers a clean safety net if this turns into a scrap.
The verdict: Leipzig DNB at 1.40 (Marathon). Home advantage, superior recent scoring output and PSV's leaky record away from the Eredivisie make this the cleaner side to be on. Confidence is measured - Leipzig's own away losses remind you they are not infallible.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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