Vallecas is a cauldron, but Rayo arrive at this one battered: five players out injured, zero clean sheets in their last five, and a defensive record that has shipped 13 goals in that stretch. Athletic Bilbao walk in riding a completely different story.
Bilbao have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, keeping 4 clean sheets. They are unbeaten in those 5 games. In 4 head-to-heads from Rayo's perspective, Bilbao have won 3 and drawn 1, scoring 7 and conceding only 3. The model puts Athletic at 44% to win, against Rayo's 28%.
At 2.6 (bet365), the away win is the play. Rayo's injury list is long, their defence is porous, and Bilbao are in suffocating form. Back Athletic Bilbao at 2.6.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 28.02.26 | La Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 25.08.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.08.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.04.25 | La Liga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 01.12.24 | La Liga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service