QPR have not won in their last five Championship outings, picking up four draws and one defeat. That is a concern, but Derby arrive in worse shape: three losses in five, zero clean sheets in that run, and six goals conceded in their last two away trips alone. Four of QPR's key attackers are sidelined, yet Derby's injury list is longer and hits their defensive core hard, with five defenders or fullbacks absent.
The head-to-head record tilts firmly toward Derby over two recent meetings, but the model puts QPR's win probability at 66 percent, with a home win or draw landing at 89 percent. Under 2.5 goals is rated 64 percent likely, and BTTS only 32 percent. Derby have scored in just 3 of their last 5 games and kept no clean sheets in any of them.
DNB on QPR at 1.32 (bet365) is the call. You forfeit the draw upside, but QPR's home crowd and Derby's leaky defence make a home win the most probable single outcome. Confidence is moderate given QPR's own winless streak.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.04.26 | Championship | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 25.10.25 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.02.25 | Championship | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 05.10.24 | Championship | 2–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service