Portugal arrive in form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring in 4 of those 5. Norway, despite two recent losses, have scored in all 5 of their last games and conceded in all 5 as well. Bruno Fernandes is out for the hosts, while Norway miss Sorloth and Ryerson, but the attacking threat on both sides remains clear.
The model puts BTTS probability at 87%. Norway registered BTTS in all 5 of their last matches. Portugal hit BTTS in 3 of their last 5. The one head-to-head on record, played just days ago, also ended with both teams scoring. Marathon price on BTTS YES is 1.48.
With Norway unable to keep a single clean sheet in their last 5 and Portugal conceded in 4 of 5, the model is confident both nets will be hit. BTTS YES at 1.48 is the pick. For more risk, Portugal home win at 1.73 (WilliamHill) offers value given the 75% model probability.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 27.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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