Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips – Championship, 1 Sep 2026

Portsmouth head into round 4 having won once in their last five across all competitions, but Derby arrive in worse shape: no win in five, zero clean sheets in that run, and a 0-3 hammering at home to Swansea last weekend. Six absentees weaken the Pompey squad, yet Derby are missing four themselves including Szmodics, their most creative outlet. The model puts Portsmouth's win probability at 70 per cent, a figure that sits well above the implied 45 per cent baked into the 2.20 money-line. Head-to-head, Portsmouth have kept zero clean sheets in five meetings with Derby, but Derby have also failed to win in four of those five, collecting three draws. With Derby keeping no clean sheet in any of their last five outings and conceding ten goals across that stretch, the away side look fragile. Portsmouth DNB at 1.62 (bet365) converts a 70 per cent model read into a low-variance entry. Take it.

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