Poland arrive winless in five (0W-2D-3L), leaking 10 goals across that run, while Romania have conceded in all five of their recent outings and kept zero clean sheets. Five injured players on the Polish side add further pressure on a backline already shipping goals freely. Both teams are low on confidence and short on defensive solidity heading into this Nations League clash.
The model puts Over 2.5 goals at 76% probability. Poland scored in 3 of 5 and conceded in 4 of 5; Romania scored in 4 of 5 and conceded in all 5. Three of five Poland games and three of five Romania games cleared the 2.5-goal line. BTTS landed in 3 of 5 for Poland and 4 of 5 for Romania. Bet365 prices Over 2.5 at 1.80.
The numbers point clearly to a high-scoring night. With two leaky defences, five Polish absentees and both sides desperate for points, Over 2.5 at 1.80 is the play. Confidence: 4.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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