Platense arrive at this second leg in poor form, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches and conceding in all 5 of them. Fluminense come in with 3 wins from 5 and scored in every one of those 5 games. The first leg, played on 9 September, ended 2-0 to Fluminense, meaning Platense must attack here to survive. That obligation to open up suits our model perfectly.
The key numbers: Platense have kept zero clean sheets in their last 5 and Fluminense have scored in 5 of 5. Fluminense themselves conceded in 3 of 5, and Platense scored in 3 of 5. The model reads those inputs and returns a 91% BTTS probability and 95% for over 2.5 goals. Both figures are unusually high and point to the same conclusion.
Both teams to score is the call here. Platense have no choice but to push forward chasing the deficit, and Fluminense have the firepower to punish them on the counter. Confidence is 4 out of 5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 09.09.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–0 | U2.5 |
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