Philadelphia Union arrive in strong shape, winning 4 of their last 5 games and scoring 10 goals across that run. Santos Laguna, by contrast, have lost all 5 of their last matches, conceding 12 times and failing to keep a single clean sheet. The gap in momentum could not be wider.
The model puts Philadelphia at 90% to win, against a market price of 1.42. Santos have scored in only 2 of their last 5 outings, while the Union conceded in 4 of 5 but their attack is clearly the dominant force here. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of 5 for both sides, yet the BTTS model probability sits at just 15%.
The play is DNB Home at 1.19 (bet365), removing draw risk on a side the model prices at 90%. Alt: back No BTTS at 2.20, with Santos scoring in just 2 of their last 5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service