Subaru Park has been a fortress lately, and Philadelphia Union are rolling into this one on three wins and two draws from their last five, scoring in every single game. FC Cincinnati arrive battered, with two losses in five and zero clean sheets across that run.
The numbers back the atmosphere. Philadelphia scored 11 goals in five recent outings, conceding in 4 of 5. Cincinnati conceded in all 5 of their last games. Head-to-head over the last five meetings, these sides produced goals in 4 of 5, with over 2.5 in 4 of those clashes. The model puts home win probability at 51%, over 2.5 goals at 82% and BTTS at 79%.
Philadelphia Union to win at 1.70 is the bold call here. Cincinnati have no clean sheet in five, Bedoya's absence hurts Union less than Cincinnati's road form hurts them. Take the home win and enjoy the ride.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.08.25 | MLS | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 02.03.25 | MLS | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 07.02.25 | Club Friendlies | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 21.10.24 | MLS | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.08.24 | Leagues Cup | 2–4 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service