Parma arrive at their own ground broken. Three league and cup defeats on the spin, zero goals scored in their last three competitive matches, and a squad missing Nicolussi Caviglia in midfield. The Tardini has been a house of pain this early season, not a fortress. Monza, meanwhile, have found the net in all 5 of their last 5 matches and carry genuine firepower despite a leaky defence, though Pessina and Toure are both absent.
The numbers are stark. Parma have scored in just 1 of their last 5 outings and kept 0 clean sheets in h2h meetings, while Monza have scored in all 5 recent games. Both previous h2h fixtures ended with goals at both ends. The model puts Monza at 85% to win, yet the market offers 3.00 on the away side - a price that screams value.
Monza are the pick here at 3.00. Yes, the visitors are imperfect, but Parma are historically toothless right now and playing at home changes nothing. Back Monza at that bigger price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.03.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 28.12.24 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service