Ligue 1, round 2. Paris FC drew 0-0 at Troyes in their league opener and arrive winless across their last 5 outings (0W-3D-2L). Nice also started with a 0-0, this time at home to Lorient, and head into this trip with 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games. Four absentees on the Nice side - Abdelmonem, Bombito, Abergel and Ngoumou - add uncertainty, but their defensive shape has been the constant.
The numbers reinforce the low-scoring angle. Nice conceded in just 1 of their last 5 matches, while Paris FC scored in only 3 of 5. In the 2 head-to-head meetings, neither game topped 2.5 goals - both ended 1-0 or 1-1. The model's clearest signal: under 2.5 has landed in 2 of 2 h2h games, and Nice's last 5 produced only 2 over-2.5 results.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 is the call. The convergence of low h2h totals, Nice's watertight backline and Paris FC's misfiring attack makes this the most data-backed line on the card. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.03.26 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.09.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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