Paris FC arrive in Ligue 1 round 4 with back-to-back league wins but four absentees, including Ikone and Koleosho. Lyon are unbeaten in their last three Ligue 1 outings and have scored in all 5 of their recent games, yet their defensive record away from home is fragile. The two head-to-head meetings on record ended 1-1 and 3-3, both with goals at each end, signalling mutual attacking intent but also defensive vulnerability.
The key numbers: Paris FC's form over 2.5 sits at 4 in 5 games, yet their Ligue 1 matches tell a different story - the model assigns just 25% probability to Over 2.5 and 75% to Under. Lyon's last 5 games produced only 2 Over 2.5 results. Both sides carry injury concerns that limit firepower.
At 2.15-2.20, Under 2.5 offers genuine value against a 75% model probability. This is the play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.03.26 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 29.10.25 | Ligue 1 | 3–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service