The Paulista derby arrives with Palmeiras unbeaten in their last five across all competitions, conceding just once in that stretch. Sao Paulo come in with two losses in five, and their defensive frailty on the road is a real concern heading into the Allianz Parque cauldron.
The head-to-head picture is brutal for Tricolor. Palmeiras have won all five recent meetings, scoring 10 and conceding 4. At home, Palmeiras kept 4 clean sheets in 5 games and conceded in only 1 of those. Sao Paulo conceded in 4 of their last 5. The model puts Palmeiras at 62% to win and 86% to win or draw.
DNB on Palmeiras at 1.26 is the play. Yes, it is short, but five wins in five derbies and a near-impenetrable home defensive record justify taking the safety net. At 5.00, the away win is the riskier dart for the bold.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 22.03.26 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 02.03.26 | Paulista A1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 24.01.26 | Paulista A1 | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 05.10.25 | Serie A | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 11.05.25 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service