Palmeiras host Cerro Porteno in the Libertadores last 16 carrying a 3W-1D-1L record in the h2h series and three clean sheets in five meetings. The Brazilians scored in 4 of their last 5 games and conceded in only 2, while Cerro arrive with 3 losses in their last 4 domestic outings and one key injury in Gabriel Aguayo. Palmeiras are also missing Fuchs Bruno, Gustavo Gomez and Jefte at the back, adding uncertainty to the defensive line.
The model puts Palmeiras at 44% to win, with a combined 64% home-or-draw probability. Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% model probability, driven by Palmeiras scoring 10 goals in 5 recent games and 4 of those 5 going over 2.5. Cerro conceded in 3 of 5 recent matches and their own last 5 produced over 2.5 in 3 games.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 is the pick. The scoring volume on both sides and the open h2h series make this the sharpest angle. For a bolder play, back Palmeiras on the Asian Handicap -1 at 1.48.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.05.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 30.04.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.05.25 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 10.04.25 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.05.23 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service