Pafos host Hajduk Split needing to overturn a 0-2 first-leg deficit. Their recent form offers little comfort: 1 win in 5 outings, scoring in just 2 of those 5 games. Hajduk arrive in far better shape, 4 wins from 5, scoring in all 5 matches and conceding in only 1.
The numbers tell a clear story. Hajduk kept 4 clean sheets in 5 recent games; Pafos scored in just 2 of 5. The market prices a Pafos home win at 1.81-1.83, yet the Cypriot side must score at least twice while keeping Hajduk out, a combination their form makes very unlikely. Under 2.5 goals sits at 1.83-1.85, reflecting the low-scoring pattern from both sides.
The model points to Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 (bet365). Hajduk's defensive solidity and Pafos's attacking struggles are the two drivers. A tight second leg suits the Croatian side, who need only a draw or a narrow defeat to go through.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.07.26 | UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | U2.5 |
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