Paderborn arrive at Bundesliga round 5 with two league wins from four attempts, having scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches across all competitions. Stuttgart carry five absentees but still posted 12 goals in their last 5 outings and scored in 4 of those 5. The gap in firepower is clear, and the market at 1.57-1.60 for an away win reflects it. Paderborn's lone head-to-head record with Stuttgart ended in a 1-2 defeat at home, which adds no comfort for the hosts. The key numbers: Paderborn have conceded in 3 of their last 5, Stuttgart scored in 4 of theirs. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 72 percent, pointing to a tight, low-scoring affair. Stuttgart DNB at around 1.23-1.26 removes the draw risk on a side that is simply the stronger unit here. That is the value play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.01.23 | DFB Pokal | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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