Paderborn arrive at Bundesliga round 4 in dire shape, winless in all three league outings and blanked in two of them. Four injured players further thin a squad that has scored in just 2 of its last 5 fixtures. Hoffenheim have problems of their own - three losses from five - but they carry genuine attacking punch, finding the net in 4 of their last 5 games and posting 10 goals in that stretch. The key numbers point firmly to the visitors. Paderborn have conceded in 4 of 5 recent matches, while Hoffenheim's DNB price of 1.30 reflects a side expected to handle a promoted side comfortably. Four absentees for the hosts and a model probability of 65 percent for an away win make the case plain. Hoffenheim Draw No Bet at 1.30 is the call.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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