Pachuca enter Round 4 of Liga MX on a rough patch, winning just one of their last five across all competitions, but they are at home now and Puebla are in far worse shape. The visitors have lost four of their last five, conceded 14 goals in those games and have not kept a single clean sheet in their recent run. Both squads carry knocks - Carlos Sanchez is out for the hosts and Ignacio Maestro misses out for Puebla.
The head-to-head record strongly favours Pachuca: four wins and a draw from the last five meetings, with both sides scoring every single time. Over those five h2h games, all five went over 2.5 goals. However, the model puts under 2.5 at 83% probability this time, and the market agrees at 2.10. Puebla have conceded in all five recent games while Pachuca scored in four of five.
Given Puebla's defensive fragility on the road and Pachuca's home record against them, the value sits with BTTS NO at 1.95. Puebla look too leaky to stay quiet but their attack has been poor away. The model gives 75% probability to no BTTS - that price deserves backing.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 04.07.26 | Club Friendlies | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 08.03.26 | Liga MX | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 24.09.25 | Liga MX | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 27.02.25 | Liga MX | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 21.09.24 | Liga MX | 2–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service