El Sadar is a fortress in name only right now. Osasuna arrive here on a three-game losing streak, having shipped 12 goals in their last five outings, and four key men including Aimar Oroz and Moi Gomez are sidelined. Rayo, meanwhile, have scored in every single one of their last five matches and carry genuine attacking threat.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Osasuna have conceded in 4 of their last 5 games and kept just one clean sheet. Rayo have zero clean sheets in their last 5 but have found the net in all 5. The model puts the away win probability at 47%, against a market price of 3.10 that implies roughly 32%. Four of the last five head-to-heads produced goals at both ends.
The gap between model probability and market price is where the value lives. Rayo are wounded too, but their attack has been relentless. I am taking the away win at 3.10 as my main tip, and backing BTTS YES at 1.80 as the safer companion play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 24.01.26 | La Liga | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 14.09.25 | La Liga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 19.01.25 | La Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 16.09.24 | La Liga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 20.04.24 | La Liga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service