Olimpia Asuncion host Vasco in the Sudamericana last 16, second leg. The first leg in Rio ended 0-0, leaving everything open. Olimpia are 2W-1D-2L in their last five but showed firepower at home with a 5-0 and a 2-1. Vasco arrive in poor scoring form: they scored in only 1 of their last 5 games and kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
The model puts BTTS probability at 57%, implying fair value around 1.75. The market offers 1.93, a clear edge. Key inputs: Olimpia scored in 2 of 5 recent games but conceded in 3, while Vasco conceded in 2 of 5 despite their offensive drought. The h2h also shows 1 BTTS in 3 meetings, with the May home tie producing a 3-1. Over 2.5 sits at 55% model probability against a 2.25 price.
Main tip: BTTS YES at 1.93. The aggregate is tight, Olimpia need a goal, and their defense has leaked in 3 of 5. Vasco may be cautious but Olimpia's pressure at home should open space. Confidence is moderate given Vasco's recent shutouts.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.08.26 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 21.05.26 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 01.05.26 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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