Nottingham arrive at round 5 with a mixed but functional record: one win, two draws and two defeats across all competitions, including a creditable 2-1 away at Aston Villa. Coventry, newly promoted or otherwise, are in freefall. Four losses in five games, a 0-5 home drubbing by Brighton the most alarming, and five key players on the injury list before a visit to a top-flight ground.
The numbers make the case plainly. Coventry have conceded in all 5 of their last five matches and shipped 12 goals in that span. Nottingham carry a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5, but their attack has scored in 2 of 5. With Coventry having zero clean sheets in recent form, the home side's defensive solidity is the relative strength here. Nottingham DNB sits at 1.23 with bet365.
At 1.23 the margin is tight, but the gap in squad fitness and recent defensive exposure is wide enough to justify it. DNB removes the draw risk on a side the model gives 84 percent to win. Back Nottingham DNB at 1.23.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.07.22 | Club Friendlies | 1–3 | O2.5 |
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