Nottingham arrive at round 7 with one win from their last five across all competitions, scoring in just 3 of those 5 outings. Arsenal, despite four absentees including Saliba and Zubimendi, have won 4 of their last 5 and kept 2 clean sheets in that run. The gap in current form is hard to argue against.
The head-to-head record underlines the pattern: Nottingham have scored 0 goals in 2 meetings with Arsenal, conceding 3. The model puts Arsenal's win probability at 58% and the combined away-win-or-draw figure at 86%. Arsenal DNB is priced at 1.22, reflecting a side that simply does not lose here often. BTTS NO at 1.82 also fits, given Nottingham scored in only 3 of 5 recent games.
The pick is Arsenal DNB at 1.22. Thin margin, but the directional case is solid. Alternative: BTTS NO at 1.82, backed by Nottingham's muted attacking output and Arsenal's 2 clean sheets in 5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.01.26 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.09.25 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 26.02.25 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.11.24 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 30.01.24 | Premier League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service