Norwich arrive at Carrow Road in dismal shape, losing four of their last five across all competitions and conceding 16 goals in that stretch. Six players are sidelined through injury, stretching a squad that has kept zero clean sheets in recent form. Southampton, by contrast, have won three of their last five, scoring 10 and conceding only five, with a tighter defensive record that points clearly to the superior side.
The numbers back Southampton hard. Norwich have conceded in all five recent matches, while Southampton have scored in all five of theirs. Head-to-head, Norwich have won just one of three meetings, losing twice and conceding five goals against two scored. The model puts Southampton at 64% to win, with over 2.5 goals at 84% probability.
Southampton DNB at 2.02 (bet365) is the play. The price covers the draw risk while backing a side in form against a porous, injury-hit host. Back it at 2.02.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.03.26 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.12.25 | Championship | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 26.08.25 | League Cup | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 01.01.24 | Championship | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 12.08.23 | Championship | 4–4 | O2.5 |
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