Norwich arrive at Carrow Road with momentum in patches but serious defensive holes. Three wins from five recent outings is encouraging, yet they have conceded in all five of those games and kept zero clean sheets. Birmingham are no tighter at the back, drawing three of their last four Championship matches while conceding in every game across their last five.
The numbers point one way. Birmingham have registered BTTS in all five of their last five matches. Norwich have conceded in 5 of 5 recent games too. Both previous head-to-head meetings this season ended with both teams scoring, and four of the last five Norwich games have gone over 2.5. Norwich carry four absentees, further thinning defensive cover.
BTTS YES at 1.67 is the call. The model puts the probability at 58%, which implies fair value around 1.72, so 1.67 is marginally short but the consistency of the underlying pattern justifies a stake. Alternative: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.02.26 | Championship | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 22.11.25 | Championship | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 04.05.24 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 30.09.23 | Championship | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 21.02.23 | Championship | 3–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service