Norway arrive in red-hot form, winning 4 of their last 5 and scoring in all 5 games. Sorloth is injured, but the attacking output has been relentless: 11 goals in 5 matches, and every single game went over 2.5. Portugal are a different beast defensively - 3 clean sheets in 5 away games, conceding only 2 goals - but they carry a real attacking threat too, having scored in 3 of those 5.
The key split: Norway over 2.5 in 5 of 5 (avg 4.2 goals per game), Portugal over 2.5 in just 2 of 5. The tension between Norway's open style and Portugal's defensive discipline sets up a middle ground, but Norway at home without Sorloth still produced 3-2 vs Denmark days ago. The model leans on Norway's structural inability to keep games tight.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is the call. Norway's home games are simply too porous to stay under, and Portugal have enough quality to punish any gaps. Bet365 price: 1.50.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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