Northern Ireland arrive in superb form: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5, with 4 clean sheets from 5. They beat Georgia 1-0 just ten days ago away from home, and the model puts a home win or draw at 100% probability. Georgia, meanwhile, have scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches and have zero over-2.5 games in that run.
The model gives Northern Ireland a 64% win probability against just 1% for Georgia. Clean sheets dominate this fixture: 4 out of 4 in recent NI games (all BTTS-no), and the sole h2h ended 1-0. Northern Ireland are without Ballard, Lyons and McCann, but the squad depth has been enough to dominate this group.
At 1.50, the home win is priced tightly but the model backs it firmly. One clean-sheet win in 10 days over the same opponent is a strong signal. Main tip: Northern Ireland to win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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