Nijmegen arrive at round 3 with two wins from five and zero clean sheets across that stretch, having conceded in every game. Excelsior, by contrast, have won four of their last five, scoring 15 and conceding just 4, with two clean sheets. The model puts the away win probability at 78 per cent, a figure that makes the market price look generous.
Nijmegen carry three absentees and have shipped 11 goals in five outings. Excelsior scored in all five of their recent fixtures and kept the opponent scoreless in two of them. The only head-to-head on record ended 2-0 to Nijmegen away at Excelsior, so there is some caution warranted, but the form gap is wide.
At 6.5 the away win is the standout price in this fixture. The model implies fair odds closer to 1.28. Excelsior's defensive solidity and goal output make this the value side of the card.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 04.04.26 | Eredivisie | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 09.08.25 | Eredivisie | 5–0 | O2.5 |
| 06.05.24 | Eredivisie | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 13.08.23 | Eredivisie | 3–4 | O2.5 |
| 19.02.23 | Eredivisie | 0–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service