This is a season opener and all five recent matches for both sides are pre-season friendlies, so form must be read cautiously. Newcastle lost three of five warm-ups, kept no clean sheets and conceded in all five. Livramento and Schar are sidelined, leaving the backline short. Liverpool were patchier than their reputation - two wins, two losses, one draw - but showed more defensive resilience with two clean sheets in five.
The head-to-head record is the sharpest edge here. Newcastle have lost all three recent meetings with Liverpool, conceding ten goals and keeping zero clean sheets in that run. All three games went over 2.5 and both sides scored in every one. Liverpool DNB is priced at 1.40-1.45, a reflection of a market that sees little path to a Newcastle result.
At 1.40, Liverpool Draw No Bet offers a thin but defensible margin. The h2h pattern, Newcastle's defensive absences and the odds alignment all point the same way. Back Liverpool DNB. Alt: BTTS Yes at 1.44 given goals in every h2h and Newcastle's inability to keep a clean sheet across all five warm-ups.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.01.26 | Premier League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 25.08.25 | Premier League | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 25.08.25 | Premier League | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 16.03.25 | League Cup | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 26.02.25 | Premier League | 2–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service