Newcastle arrive at this Premier League round-5 fixture with mixed form: three wins from five across competitions, but a 1-4 thumping at Leeds last time out in the league leaves confidence fragile. Hull, newly promoted and carrying six injury absences, have nonetheless been hard to beat, picking up two wins and two draws in their last five, conceding in only 2 of those 5 games.
The numbers favour a tight match. Hull have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 outings and registered BTTS in just 1 of those games. The model places under 2.5 goals at 59% probability, and both-teams-to-score at only 39%. Newcastle's own recent record shows 3 conceded-in from 5, but Hull's low-scoring away profile is the dominant factor here. Six Hull players are unavailable, yet their defensive structure has held firm.
At 2.22-2.30 across books, under 2.5 goals offers value against a Hull side that has kept three clean sheets in five and a Newcastle attack still finding its rhythm. Main tip: Under 2.5 goals at 2.22 (Marathon). Alternative: BTTS No at 2.09-2.10.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 27.07.24 | Club Friendlies | 0–2 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service