Yankee Stadium turf, a squad stretched thin. New York City host Philadelphia Union carrying six injury absences, yet the model still pins them at a 67 % chance of winning this MLS fixture. Their last five games brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, but those defeats came in the Leagues Cup against Mexican opposition - in MLS they have not lost at home in recent outings. Philadelphia arrive with 3 wins from 5, though they scored in only 3 of those matches and go away from their own ground here.
The head-to-head history backs NYC firmly. In the last five meetings NYC have won 3, lost 2, keeping 2 clean sheets while conceding in only 3 games. Three of those five clashes ended under 2.5 goals, and BTTS fired in just 2 of 5. Philadelphia have one injury absentee versus NYC's six, but the numbers still point one way.
DNB on NYC at 1.70 (bet365) is the play. The model gives 67 % to a home win; eliminating the draw at this price is solid value. The injury list is a concern, so confidence stays measured.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.03.26 | MLS | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 24.11.25 | MLS | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 05.10.25 | MLS | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.04.25 | MLS | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 19.09.24 | MLS | 1–5 | O2.5 |
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