Napoli walk into this Serie A Round 6 fixture carrying six injury absences, including De Bruyne, McTominay and Anguissa, gutting their midfield entirely. Three defeats in their last five across all competitions tell a story of a squad running on empty. Frosinone, meanwhile, arrive with four wins from five and 11 goals scored in that stretch, a side buzzing with confidence and goals.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Frosinone have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches and conceded in only 3, while Napoli have shipped goals in 4 of 5 and managed just 1 clean sheet. All 3 head-to-head meetings produced over 2.5 goals, and the model gives Frosinone a 53% win probability against 20% for the hosts.
The market has Napoli at 1.44 out of habit, not logic. Frosinone at 7.00 is the bold price that fits the data. The visitors are in form, Napoli are in crisis, and the squad with something to prove is wearing yellow.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.04.24 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 19.12.23 | Coppa Italia | 0–4 | O2.5 |
| 19.08.23 | Serie A | 1–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service