The Maradona crowd is restless. Napoli have lost three of their last five across all competitions, including a home defeat to Arsenal in the Champions League and a shock Serie A loss to Como. The pressure is real and the squad, with Buongiorno, McTominay and two others sidelined, is thinner than it looks. But the opponent arriving on Sunday is in no shape to punish them. Bologna have zero wins in their last five, scoring in only 2 of those 5 games. They have conceded in all 5. A side this blunt and this leaky is not built for a road win at Napoli. The head-to-head backs the home side too: Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last five meetings, with 8 goals scored. The model gives Napoli a 54% chance of winning. At 1.83 with Marathon, that is value I will take. Napoli win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.05.26 | Serie A | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 22.12.25 | Super Cup | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.25 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 07.04.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 25.08.24 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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