Motherwell arrive here battered by European duty, but their domestic form is not the disaster it looks. Four of their last five across all competitions produced goals at both ends, yet the head-to-head record against Dundee Utd tells a different story at Fir Park. Dundee Utd, meanwhile, are fragile away from home: they have scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches and conceded in 4 of those same 5, shipping 11 goals in the process.
The h2h numbers are the anchor here. Motherwell have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings from the home perspective, keeping 3 clean sheets and conceding just 4 goals. Dundee Utd carry no injury concerns, but the model puts Motherwell's win probability at 55% - well above what the 1.97 implies. Draw No Bet at 1.48 removes the draw risk on a side with a clear structural edge.
DNB Motherwell at 1.48 is the call. The price is short, but the combination of h2h superiority, a vulnerable visitor and model edge justifies it. Confidence is measured: Motherwell's own defensive record is porous, so this is a value play on the result, not a clean-sheet guarantee.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 28.02.26 | Premiership | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.12.25 | Premiership | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 29.10.25 | Premiership | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 22.02.25 | Premiership | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.12.24 | Premiership | 4–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service