Motherwell arrive at Fir Park having beaten Aberdeen in three of their last five meetings, keeping a clean sheet in three of those five fixtures. The Steelmen's recent form is mixed - one win, one draw, three losses across all competitions - but the context matters: two of those defeats came against Freiburg in Europe. Aberdeen, by contrast, have scored in only 1 of their last 5 matches and have not kept a clean sheet in 3 of 5, arriving here with zero goals in their last three Premiership outings.
The model puts Motherwell's win probability at 68%, with home-or-draw at 94%. The h2h aggregate shows Motherwell winning 3, drawing 1, losing 1, conceding just 3 goals over five meetings. Aberdeen have managed only 3 goals in their last 5 games across all competitions. BTTS has not occurred once in Aberdeen's last 5 matches, and the model places no-BTTS probability at 83%.
Draw No Bet on Motherwell at 1.37 (Marathon) is the play. You get the h2h dominance and Aberdeen's attacking poverty as twin pillars, with the DNB removing the draw risk at a workable price. Confidence is measured - Motherwell's injury list is not trivial.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.02.26 | Scottish Cup | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 15.02.26 | Premiership | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.25 | Premiership | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 27.09.25 | Premiership | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.09.25 | League Cup | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service