Moreirense arrive at round 6 with three defeats in five, conceding 12 goals across those games. Their only home result this term was a 0-4 hammering by Benfica, and the model puts their win probability at just 15%. Maritimo, by contrast, have scored in 4 of their last 5 outings and carry genuine threat going forward. The model gives the visitors a 67% win probability, well above what the 3.00 price implies (33%). Two inputs drive that gap: Moreirense conceded in 4 of 5 matches, and Maritimo scored in 4 of 5. The away side is simply the more functional team right now. At 3.00, Maritimo represent clear model value. The alt is BTTS YES at 1.95, backed by Maritimo scoring in 4 of 5 and a 57% model probability.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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