Moreirense arrive at round 8 with a mixed record: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last five, conceding 8 goals in that stretch. Gil Vicente are no world-beaters either - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses - but the market and the model both point the same way. The model places the away win probability at 48%, against just 20% for the hosts. In head-to-head terms, Moreirense have won only 1 of the last 5 meetings and conceded 7 goals in those games. Gil Vicente are also the leaner defensive unit here, keeping 2 clean sheets in their last 5, versus 1 for Moreirense. Away DNB at 1.58 (bet365) offers the cleaner entry: if it finishes level, the stake returns. The model's 80% away-win-or-draw probability makes this the standout angle tonight.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.07.26 | Club Friendlies | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 07.02.26 | Primeira Liga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 29.08.25 | Primeira Liga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 06.04.25 | Primeira Liga | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 12.01.25 | Taça de Portugal | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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