Moreirense arrive into Round 3 with two wins from five and a negative goal difference, having conceded in 3 of their last 5 outings. Benfica, by contrast, are perfect in five: 5 wins, 18 goals scored, just 3 conceded. The model puts away-win probability at 94%.
The h2h record is the clincher. Over the last five meetings, Moreirense have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, shipping 15 goals against just 4 scored. Four of those five clashes went over 2.5 goals. Benfica have scored in all 5 of their recent games; Moreirense have failed to score in 2 of their last 5. The gap in class is reflected in the 1.14 price for an away win.
Model says 94% for Benfica. At 1.14 (bet365) the value is thin but the conviction is high. Main tip: Benfica to win. Alt: Over 3.5 goals at 2.10 adds a punchy angle if you want more return.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.04.26 | Primeira Liga | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 14.12.25 | Primeira Liga | 0–4 | O2.5 |
| 08.02.25 | Primeira Liga | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 30.08.24 | Primeira Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 14.04.24 | Primeira Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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