The Brianteo is not a fortress right now. Monza head into Round 5 with three defeats in their last five games, conceding 11 goals in that stretch, while four injured players - including Pessina and Ngonge - thin the squad badly. Sassuolo arrive in very different shape: three wins from five, 11 goals scored, and they have found the net in every single game of that run.
The numbers back Sassuolo hard. They have gone over 2.5 goals in all five of their last five matches. Monza conceded in 4 of their last 5. The h2h shows Monza have never lost to Sassuolo in five meetings, but those were different squads - and the model puts the away side at 74% to win tonight.
Sassuolo at 2.30 is the call. Yes, the h2h record gives pause, but form, fitness and firepower all point one way. Back the visitors and accept the ride.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.08.24 | Club Friendlies | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 28.01.24 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.10.23 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 19.05.23 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 22.01.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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