Monza walk into this one carrying real baggage. Three losses in their last five across all competitions, zero clean sheets in that run, and a defensive record that has shipped 12 goals in five outings. The home dugout is also short-handed with Ziolkowski, Pessina and Toure all sidelined.
Cagliari tell a very different story. Three wins from their last five, including a stunning scalp at Atalanta. They have kept two clean sheets in that stretch and conceded in only 3 of 5 matches. The head-to-head backs them too: Monza have lost 2 of the last 4 meetings and conceded 6 goals across those four games.
The model puts Cagliari's win probability at 61 percent, yet the price sits at 3.10. That is genuine value on a side travelling with momentum and a solid defensive shape. Take Cagliari to win at 3.10.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 30.03.25 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 05.01.25 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 16.03.24 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 26.11.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service