Montevideo City arrive at this second leg having beaten Tigre 1-0 in Buenos Aires seven days ago, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Tigre head into the tie with two absentees (Ramon Arias, Bruno Leyes) and a muted attack: they scored in only 2 of their last 5 games and registered just 4 goals across that run. Both sides have kept 3 clean sheets each in their last 5 outings, signalling a cautious, structured contest. The model puts home-win-or-draw at 80%, and Montevideo City have every incentive to manage the aggregate lead rather than chase goals. The numbers point firmly away from a high-scoring night. Model probability for Under 2.5: 59%. With only 1 BTTS result in each team's last 5, the market price of 1.60 on Under 2.5 is the clearest edge on the card.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.08.26 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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