Monterrey arrive in decent shape: three wins from five recent outings, scoring in all five games and conceding in four. Nashville are more inconsistent, with only two wins in five and three games where they failed to score. Three Nashville absentees - Willis, Espinoza and Muyl - add further uncertainty to their attacking and goalkeeping options. The only previous meeting, at this same tournament in 2023, ended 0-2 for Nashville, though the sample is too small to lean on heavily. The model gives Monterrey a 43% win probability against 31% for Nashville, and 55% for both teams to score. Monterrey have seen BTTS in four of their last five; Nashville in just two. The model sits at 55% for BTTS, a thin edge but consistent with both sides' recent output. BTTS YES at 55% model probability is the main call. Alt: back Monterrey on the 1X2 at 43% implied.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 16.08.23 | Leagues Cup | 0–2 | U2.5 |
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