Monterrey head into this quarter-final with a 3W-2L record across their last five, but their only clean sheet count stands at zero and they conceded in all 5 of those matches. Chicago Fire arrive in sharper shape: 4 wins and 1 draw, unbeaten, with goals scored in all 5 games. Djurdjevic is absent for the hosts, while Fire travel without Mbokazi and Oregel.
The model puts Chicago at 50% to win in 90 minutes versus Monterrey's 24%, implying clear value on the away side at 2.25. Fire have averaged 2.0 goals per game scored across their last five, and the market's Draw No Bet price of 1.70 for the away side reflects the lean. Monterrey's zero clean sheets in five is the red flag for the hosts.
The model favours Chicago Fire on Draw No Bet at 1.70. If Fire's defensive solidity holds - they conceded only 5 in 5 - a straight away win at 2.25 is the sharper play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service