Monaco arrive into this Ligue 1 round 6 fixture in commanding form, winning 4 of their last 5 across all competitions with 9 goals scored and zero defeats. Toulouse, by contrast, have won just 1 of their last 5, conceded in every game in that run, and carry a leaky defensive record of 10 goals against. Six Monaco players are sidelined, but the gap in quality remains substantial.
The model prints 76% for a Monaco win against the market's implied 62.5% (odd_1 = 1.60). In head-to-head terms, Monaco have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 5 home-perspective meetings, scoring in all 5. Toulouse have kept zero clean sheets in their last 5 fixtures. The BTTS model probability sits at just 37%, with Monaco posting 2 clean sheets in their recent run.
DNB Monaco at 1.21-1.23 is the play. The model edge over the market is clear, the defensive cover removes the draw risk, and Toulouse's road record gives no reason to oppose it. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.04.26 | Ligue 1 | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 25.10.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 07.03.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.12.24 | Ligue 1 | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 18.02.24 | Ligue 1 | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service