Mirassol arrive at this Libertadores last-16 tie in patchy form, picking up just one win from their last five outings across Serie A and Copa do Brasil. LDU Quito look sharper, with three wins in five, though a 0-2 home loss to Independiente del Valle just six days ago is a concern. Both sides have been scoring regularly, and the two earlier meetings in this same Libertadores campaign each ended with one side keeping a clean sheet.
The key numbers: Mirassol conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches and scored in 4 of 5. LDU scored in 4 of their last 5 and conceded in 3 of 5. The model puts both-teams-to-score probability at 88%, well above the implied 48% baked into the 2.10 price. Mirassol also carry two injury absences in Aldo Jose and Negueba, which could blunt their defensive shape.
Verdict: 88% model probability vs 48% implied odds probability is a sharp edge. BTTS YES at 2.10 is the play. For the alt, the home win at 1.73 reflects the model's 64% confidence in Mirassol on home soil.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.05.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 15.04.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service