Mirassol arrive at this Serie A round 23 clash carrying real baggage: one win in their last five across all competitions, no clean sheet in that run, and two heavy defeats. Flamengo, by contrast, are unbeaten in five, scoring in every single one of those games and conceding in only three. The gulf in momentum could not be clearer.
The numbers back Flamengo firmly. They have posted 9 goals in their last 5 matches against just 3 conceded. In both previous head-to-head meetings Mirassol failed to keep a clean sheet, and Flamengo took the points in one of those two. The model gives Flamengo a 58% win probability, while Draw No Bet at 1.38 (10Bet/bet365) still carries decent value given that 82% away-win-or-draw probability.
Mirassol's leaky defence, zero clean sheets in five, and a congested schedule make life hard at home. Flamengo DNB at 1.38 is our play: if it ends level you walk away whole, if Flamengo win you collect. That safety net is worth the modest price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 06.12.25 | Serie A | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 09.08.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service