Minnesota United arrive winless in five (0W-3D-2L), scoring in 4 of 5 but conceding in 4 of 5 as well. Juarez are in worse shape, losing 3 of their last 5 with no clean sheet across those games and conceding 9 goals. Both defences are porous heading into this Leagues Cup opener. The numbers are hard to ignore: Minnesota's last five produced BTTS in 4 of 5 fixtures, Juarez's in 3 of 5. Juarez have conceded in all 5 recent matches, and Minnesota have conceded in 4 of 5. The market prices BTTS YES at 1.67, which the model reads as fair value given the defensive records on both sides. Minnesota are home favourites at 1.74-1.75, but their 0 wins in five makes a straight home bet unappealing. BTTS YES at 1.67 is the cleaner play here.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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