Millwall arrive at this fixture carrying six absentees and a patchy run of one win in their last five across all competitions. Swansea, by contrast, have won three of their last five Championship outings and scored in four of those five matches. The visitors look the sharper side heading into the Den on a Tuesday night.The head-to-head numbers are the most compelling piece of data here. Millwall have gone unbeaten in all five recent meetings, but Swansea have conceded just twice across those games while the Lions kept three clean sheets. Yet the model assigns Swansea a 53 percent win probability, and their recent form - three wins, one draw, one loss in five - supports that reading. Millwall's defensive injury list is significant.Swansea Draw No Bet at 1.98 (bet365) is the call. You are covered if the match ends level, and the model backs the away side as clear favourite. Six Millwall absentees, a confident Swansea in form, and a price close to even money make this a workable angle at confidence 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 04.01.26 | Championship | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.09.25 | Championship | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 26.04.25 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 26.10.24 | Championship | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 04.05.24 | Championship | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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