Middlesbrough arrive into this Championship round-6 fixture in solid nick, winning three of their last five across all competitions and scoring nine times in that run. Millwall, by contrast, have won just once in five, shipping 12 goals in the process, and they travel to the Riverside with six players absent through injury.
The head-to-head record backs Middlesbrough further. In five meetings, Boro have won three and kept two clean sheets, conceding in only three of those games. At home specifically, they scored four goals against Norwich last weekend and have found the net in four of their last five. Millwall have scored in only three of their last five and conceded in four. The model puts Boro's win probability at 64 per cent.
With DNB odds of 1.24 (bet365), there is a slim but real margin over the model price. Millwall's injury list, poor road form and Boro's firepower make this a defensible position. DNB Middlesbrough at 1.24.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.04.26 | Championship | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 16.08.25 | Championship | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 12.04.25 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.12.24 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.01.24 | Championship | 1–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service